BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

White-throated Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-62%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-throated Sparrow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2022TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2022 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20180.020.000.06
20190.020.000.06
20200.020.000.06
20210.020.000.06
20220.020.000.06

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GluekMINNESOTA41967
BadgerMINNESOTA22017
OkleeMINNESOTA11989
ErieMINNESOTA12011
GryglaMINNESOTA12015
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA12000
Big StoneMINNESOTA12001
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA12009
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.