BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

White-throated Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Sparrow has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-throated Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1412.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1412.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1412.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.20
20240.000.000.20
20250.000.000.20
20260.000.000.20
20270.000.000.20

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LittletonMASSACHUSETTS32006
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS31986
WoodstockCONNECTICUT21987
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT21994
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS21983
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS21976
MysticCONNECTICUT12022
E HartlandCONNECTICUT11973
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT11975
GreenwichCONNECTICUT11972
DanburyCONNECTICUT11983
WarrenCONNECTICUT11991
Cape NeddickMAINE12002
Kittery PtMAINE11995
MarionMASSACHUSETTS11969
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS11972
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS11994
N OxfordMASSACHUSETTS11972
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS11997
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS11980
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS12005
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS11990
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS12010
Cape Cod NsMASSACHUSETTS11991
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.