BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

White-throated Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Sparrow has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 86% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-86%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 86% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.001.2
20260.150.001.2
20270.120.001.1
20280.090.001.1
20290.050.001.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N WilmurtNEW-YORK231998
ParishvilleNEW-YORK162024
EllenburgNEW-YORK132006
West BangorNEW-YORK61999
FowlerNEW-YORK51968
BalmatNEW-YORK52008
North PownalVERMONT22009
RhinebeckNEW-YORK11972
HighlandNEW-YORK11970
W ShokanNEW-YORK12007
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11992
CatskillsNEW-YORK11988
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12014
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK11994
MacdougallNEW-YORK12006
TrumansburgNEW-YORK11992
OrleansNEW-YORK11967
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK11995
CastileNEW-YORK11977
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK11987
WatertownNEW-YORK11992
PulaskiNEW-YORK12006
Alder CreekNEW-YORK12004
OneidaNEW-YORK12010
SalemNEW-YORK12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.