BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet

RecurvirostridaeShorebirdsRecurvirostra americana

American Avocet has surged: up 325% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+325%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
420RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the American Avocet

The American Avocet (Recurvirostra americana) is a North American member of the Avocets & Stilts (Recurvirostridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the shorebirds.

Size
14–18 in long (35–46 cm) — a long-legged shorebird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Shorelines, mudflats, beaches, flooded fields and wet meadows.
Diet
Invertebrates probed or picked from mud, sand and shallow water.
Range
Recorded on 420 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 19 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Recurvirostridae · Shorebirds

Notable American Avocet TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Avocet. See the full index history below.

American Avocet Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+104%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.000.66
20260.310.000.66
20270.310.000.66
20280.310.000.66
20290.310.000.66

Where the American Avocet Is Detected

BBS routes recording American Avocet, sized by most recent count.

American Avocet Population Trend by State

American Avocet population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizonainsufficient datan/a1
California-20%197249
Colorado+5%197237
Idaho-45%197815
Kansas-16%19699
Louisianainsufficient datan/a3
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a2
Montana+217%197138
Nebraska-71%198011
Nevada-66%197213
New Mexico-60%197718
North Dakota+317%196933
Oklahoma+168%19837
Oregon+6%197222
South Dakota+128%196930
Texas+310%197340
Utah+248%197226
Washington-62%19789
Wyoming+117%197257

American Avocet Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

American Avocet population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin+169%197182
Northern Rockies+18%198055
Prairie Potholes+147%196961
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+4%197420
Badlands and Prairies12×197348
Shortgrass Prairie+352%197174
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-55%196918
Coastal California-80%197231
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-74%19747
Chihuahuan Desert+79%20015
Gulf Coastal Prairie-83%20069

American Avocet Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 325% since 1969. Many shorebirds have declined steeply, reflecting pressure on the coastal and wetland stopovers they depend on.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.