BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-71%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

American Avocet Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±835.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±835.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±835.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.002.1
20260.210.002.1
20270.200.002.1
20280.200.002.1
20290.190.002.1

American Avocet Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording American Avocet in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Benkelman1519911991
Crescent Lk620171980
Berea420091982
Gordon320091975
Murray Lake220241987
Wheeler Co220122012
Piester Lake219881986
Table120082003
Oglala Nat. Grass.120012001
Nenzel120212021
Dalton119711971

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.