BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Avocet Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in Nebraska has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-34%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Avocet in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

American Avocet Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Nebraska is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±574.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±574.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Nebraska is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±574.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.002.1
20270.230.002.1
20280.230.002.1
20290.220.002.1
20300.210.002.1

American Avocet Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording American Avocet in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crescent Lk2620251980
Benkelman1519911991
Berea420091982
Gordon320091975
Murray Lake220251987
Wheeler Co220122012
Piester Lake219881986
Table120082003
Oglala Nat. Grass.120012001
Nenzel120212021
Dalton119711971

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.