BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in Wyoming has surged: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+117%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has surged in Wyoming: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

American Avocet Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Wyoming is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Wyoming is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.001.2
20260.520.001.2
20270.520.001.2
20280.530.001.2
20290.530.001.2

American Avocet Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording American Avocet in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rock River1720221990
Horse Creek1620222022
Kaycee1220242024
Colter Bay919971997
Alpine920002000
Anchor920162016
Green River819821978
Dubois720122012
Seely 2620072007
Moose620172017
Lovell619991999
Mammoth520241988
Bucknum520191993
Ne Entrance420161998
Yellowstone420152013
Yoder420241971
Flamin Gorge420221997
Fontenelle320232001
Schoonover319941994
Lamont319991989
Rock Springs320121990
Bill220002000
Ervay220132013
Brookhurst220221970
Clark220031991

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.