BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet Population Trend in Colorado

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in Colorado has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+5%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Avocet in Colorado. See the full index history below.

American Avocet Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Colorado is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Colorado is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.45
20260.130.000.45
20270.130.000.45
20280.120.000.44
20290.120.000.44

American Avocet Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording American Avocet in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mica Butte919871982
Neegrande819931992
Arsenal 2620222022
Lamar620231973
Waverly620071993
Sheridan Lak620161995
Gordon Creek519991991
Briggsdale420241976
Pinneo419741974
Wildhorse L420241989
Nunn420211995
Alamosa320221988
San Luis320071996
Arsenal220141995
Fleming219881973
Last Chance219991970
Moffat220131970
Rush219901990
Walden220181990
Guffey220211990
Fort Morgan220052005
Karval220192001
Timpas220152008
Limon220162003
Kirk220052005

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.