BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Avocet Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in North Dakota has surged: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+179%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has surged in North Dakota: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Avocet Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in North Dakota is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 0.96 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.55–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.55–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in North Dakota is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 0.96 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.55–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.492.2
20271.30.512.2
20281.40.522.2
20291.40.542.2
20301.40.552.2

American Avocet Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording American Avocet in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Montpelier1020251996
Wimbledon720251990
Lakota 2720252010
Sheyenne Lk520191980
Niles420241992
Regan419831970
Bowman420221971
Horsehead Lk320241981
Powers Lake320101990
Cooperstown220221972
Lakota220091968
Loraine220141983
Wild Rose220241985
Forman120241969
Walcott120072007
Sydney119791975
Edgeley120251986
Lake George120131983
Danzig120131988
Kempton120111967
Buchanan120251968
Webster120231992
Rolla120031971
Dunn Center120092009
Carpio120231970

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.