BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet Population Trend in Nevada

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in Nevada has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-66%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has fallen sharply in Nevada: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

American Avocet Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Nevada is projected to rise about 257% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±898.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+257%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±898.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Nevada is projected to rise about 257% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±898.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.004.6
20261.40.004.5
20271.40.004.5
20281.40.004.5
20291.40.004.5

American Avocet Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording American Avocet in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fallon8420181992
Sand Pass3620191987
Ruby Valley 21520162016
Dobbin Creek1020181971
Bald Mtn.920241993
Virgin Creek420171995
Darroughs Hot Spgs320162006
Eureka320221990
Cortez220242024
Midas120232022
Chimney Res.120232023
Silver Peak119681968
Silver Peak 2120232021

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.