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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in Oklahoma has surged: up 168% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+168%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has surged in Oklahoma: up 168% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

American Avocet Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 36% by 2028 — from 0.23 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 36% by 2028 — from 0.23 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.300.000.63
20250.300.000.64
20260.310.000.64
20270.310.000.65
20280.320.000.65

American Avocet Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording American Avocet in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooperton1020142014
Hooker520231992
Hardesty319831982
Rosston219871987
Beaver220181979
Clear Lake220041996
Keyes220231996

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.