BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet Population Trend in California

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in California has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-20%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Avocet in California. See the full index history below.

American Avocet Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in California is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±230.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±230.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in California is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±230.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.7
20261.20.003.7
20271.20.003.7
20281.20.003.7
20291.20.003.7

American Avocet Survey Routes in California

Routes recording American Avocet in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Benton3820241974
Oilfields3619981970
Likely1820241988
Hollister1320071991
Haiwee Res1220051976
Carrizo Pln920231978
Big Bear919731973
Hughson720231983
Moreno719861986
Clear Lk Res720181972
Goumaz620101997
Niland620221973
Nubieber520141971
Cordova419771974
Crowley Lake420141974
Crowder Flat420092009
Macdoel420191983
Tranquillity420001972
Zamora419881975
Arvin319961973
Collegeville319851985
Tres Pinos320031995
Dorris320191972
Maricopa319901990
Pennington219891973

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.