BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Avocet Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in New Mexico has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-29%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Avocet in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

American Avocet Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in New Mexico is projected to fall about 75% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in New Mexico is projected to fall about 75% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.73
20270.140.000.73
20280.140.000.73
20290.140.000.73
20300.140.000.72

American Avocet Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording American Avocet in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maxwell820251997
Dulce720252001
Wagon Mound519731973
Caprock520251988
Valencia419911991
Stinking Lk.319971994
Crownpoint219961989
Cooley Lake220222021
Floyd219991999
Gage220192004
Sedan220252015
Laborcita220101995
Hobbs220132005
Columbus220241997
Farley120182014
Grenville120251975
Fence Lake119791979
Laborcita 2120252025
Clovis120242004

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.