BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-60%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

American Avocet Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in New Mexico is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in New Mexico is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.69
20260.110.000.69
20270.110.000.69
20280.100.000.68
20290.100.000.68

American Avocet Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording American Avocet in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wagon Mound519731973
Maxwell520171997
Valencia419911991
Dulce320242001
Stinking Lk.319971994
Crownpoint219961989
Laborcita220101995
Hobbs220132005
Cooley Lake220222021
Floyd219991999
Columbus220241997
Gage220192004
Clovis120242004
Farley120182014
Grenville120171975
Fence Lake119791979
Caprock120231988
Sedan120182015

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.