BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet Population Trend in Utah

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in Utah has surged: up 248% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+248%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has surged in Utah: up 248% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

American Avocet Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Utah is projected to rise about 145% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±186.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+145%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±186.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Utah is projected to rise about 145% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±186.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.40.0012
20263.50.0012
20273.50.0012
20283.50.0012
20293.50.0012

American Avocet Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording American Avocet in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear River11420231992
Goshen5020241986
Snowville1920241999
Callao1420241992
Neponset Res1120181995
Clive920212021
Jensen520232023
Randolph320211994
Cleveland319921992
Main Canyon320021991
Promontory220241969
E. Bear Lake220182000
Notch Peak219951990
Oak City220001986
Wellington 2220102003
Gold Hill219961994
Delta220022002
Wendover119861986
Salt Springs120031986
Timpie Spg120031980
Saleratus Cr120161995
Aneth120032001
Lynn120131988
M Warner Res120232023
Grantsville120172015

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.