BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet Population Trend in Idaho

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in Idaho has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-45%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Avocet in Idaho. See the full index history below.

American Avocet Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Idaho is projected to rise about 71% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±203.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Idaho is projected to rise about 71% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.120.000.66
20250.120.000.66
20260.110.000.65
20270.110.000.65
20280.110.000.65

American Avocet Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording American Avocet in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mud Lake6219981988
Daniels Res3620041988
Springfield1519951970
Henry1019811981
Salmon River719881988
Twin Buttes619991999
Squirrel619981998
Cedar Hill320212013
Bates319921992
Crane Creek220142002
Ririe220111996
Iron Springs220231992
Blackft Res120131984
Preston120081993
Blacks Creek120091981

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.