BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Avocet Population Trend in Washington

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in Washington has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-59%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has fallen sharply in Washington: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

American Avocet Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.10
20270.020.000.10
20280.020.000.10
20290.020.000.10
20300.020.000.10

American Avocet Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording American Avocet in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wapato419941994
Brewster220131977
Moses Lake220011975
Potholes219971997
Othello119891981
Columbia Nwr120131997
Mesa119971997
Connell120102010
Keystone120252007

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.