BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet Population Trend in Oregon

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in Oregon has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+6%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Avocet in Oregon. See the full index history below.

American Avocet Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Oregon is projected to rise about 90% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±611.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+90%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±611.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Oregon is projected to rise about 90% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±611.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.670.003.7
20260.670.003.7
20270.670.003.7
20280.670.003.7
20290.680.003.7

American Avocet Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording American Avocet in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warner Vally2820241994
Merrill2020221994
Trout Creek1120171998
Catlow Rim920222012
Modoc Point619901990
Ordnance319771977
Three Forks220162004
Blitzen 2220242000
Wagontire219711969
Malheur Nwr219971988
Blitzen219841984
Willow Spg219711969
Princeton219851972
Fish Lake220241976
Umatilla220231991
Lone Rock119961996
Crowley119891989
Alvord Lake120081983
Blizzard Gap120221985
Harney Lake120241993
Sheaville120182014
Flook Lake119981996

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.