BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet Population Trend in Texas

All statesShorebirds

American Avocet in Texas has surged: up 310% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+310%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Avocet Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has surged in Texas: up 310% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

American Avocet Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Texas is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+103%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Texas is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.000.69
20260.340.000.69
20270.340.000.69
20280.340.000.69
20290.340.000.69

American Avocet Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording American Avocet in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Claytonville1820221995
Waka1320241975
Cactus1020232018
Lag Atascosa920181971
Pantex820231977
Circle620171968
Lamesa520231975
L. Atascosa Nwr420212006
Lockhart419771977
Presidio420012001
Post420241983
Texline419991987
Friona420222001
Dalhart420241994
Sejita320162016
Hackberry320122012
Indianola220062006
Progreso220112011
Bayside 3220182018
Plains220022002
Childress220161994
Raymondville219901981
Booker219951988
Floydada220241980
Rotan220242024

American Avocet Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.