BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieShorebirds

American Avocet in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Avocet In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.001.2
20260.000.001.1
20270.000.001.1
20280.000.001.1
20290.000.001.1

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording American Avocet in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbertKANSAS402023
CoopertonOKLAHOMA102014
MisslerKANSAS82009
Crescent LkNEBRASKA62017
GordonNEBRASKA32009
HackberryTEXAS32012
Piester LakeNEBRASKA21988
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA22012
RosstonOKLAHOMA21987
BeaverOKLAHOMA22018
ChildressTEXAS22016
BookerTEXAS21995
RotanTEXAS22024
St JohnKANSAS12017
TableNEBRASKA12008
NenzelNEBRASKA12021
WeinertTEXAS11994
HaskellTEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.