BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Avocet In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesShorebirds

American Avocet in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

14×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Avocet in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

American Avocet In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.14–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.14–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.420.120.72
20270.420.120.72
20280.430.130.73
20290.440.140.74
20300.440.140.74

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American Avocet in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KayceeWYOMING152025
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA141993
Wheat BasinMONTANA122025
Thunder BasinWYOMING92025
HighwoodMONTANA82024
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA82012
FlatwillowMONTANA72003
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA62024
Seely 2WYOMING62007
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
BucknumWYOMING52019
ShawmutMONTANA42025
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA42022
JordanMONTANA32010
ForsythMONTANA32005
Flatwillow 2MONTANA32018
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA32016
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA32019
SchoonoverWYOMING31994
RoyMONTANA22023
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA22016
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA22001
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA22025
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.