BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesShorebirds

American Avocet in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

12×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.12–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.12–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.100.69
20260.400.100.70
20270.410.110.70
20280.410.110.71
20290.420.120.71

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American Avocet in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawmutMONTANA322024
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA141993
KayceeWYOMING122024
HighwoodMONTANA82024
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA82012
FlatwillowMONTANA72003
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA62024
Seely 2WYOMING62007
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
BucknumWYOMING52019
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA42022
JordanMONTANA32010
ForsythMONTANA32005
Flatwillow 2MONTANA32018
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA32016
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA32019
SchoonoverWYOMING31994
RoyMONTANA22023
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA22016
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA22001
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
IndianSOUTH-DAKOTA22005
Railroad ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA22016
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.