BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Avocet In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieShorebirds

American Avocet in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 428% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+428%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 428% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

American Avocet In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.930.002.1
20270.940.002.1
20280.940.002.1
20290.940.002.1
20300.950.002.1

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Avocet in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WakaTEXAS272025
ClaytonvilleTEXAS182022
BenkelmanNEBRASKA151991
CactusTEXAS102023
Mica ButteCOLORADO91987
NeegrandeCOLORADO81993
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO82025
PantexTEXAS72025
LamarCOLORADO62023
WaverlyCOLORADO62007
Sheridan LakCOLORADO62016
Arsenal 2COLORADO62022
CircleTEXAS62017
PanhandleTEXAS62025
Wildhorse LCOLORADO52025
Gordon CreekCOLORADO51999
LeotiKANSAS52017
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO51973
CaprockNEW-MEXICO52025
FloydadaTEXAS52025
YoderWYOMING52025
BriggsdaleCOLORADO42024
PinneoCOLORADO41974
NunnCOLORADO42021
GrigstonKANSAS42015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.