BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertShorebirds

American Avocet in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 2001.

+79%Since 2001TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 2001.

American Avocet In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 387% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+387%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 387% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19952029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.000.86
20260.320.000.87
20270.320.000.88
20280.330.000.88
20290.340.000.89

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording American Avocet in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PresidioTEXAS42001
GageNEW-MEXICO22019
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22010
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO22024
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.