BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinShorebirds

American Avocet in Great Basin has surged: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+169%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has surged in Great Basin: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Great Basin is projected to rise about 116% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+116%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±170.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Great Basin is projected to rise about 116% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.007.1
20262.80.007.2
20272.80.007.2
20282.80.007.2
20292.90.007.2

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording American Avocet in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear RiverUTAH1142023
FallonNEVADA842018
Mud LakeIDAHO621998
GoshenUTAH502024
BentonCALIFORNIA382024
Daniels ResIDAHO362004
Sand PassNEVADA362019
Warner VallyOREGON282024
MerrillOREGON202022
SnowvilleUTAH192024
LikelyCALIFORNIA182024
SpringfieldIDAHO151995
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA152016
CallaoUTAH142024
Trout CreekOREGON112017
HenryIDAHO101981
Dobbin CreekNEVADA102018
Bald Mtn.NEVADA92024
Catlow RimOREGON92022
CliveUTAH92021
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA72018
SquirrelIDAHO61998
Twin ButtesIDAHO61999
Modoc PointOREGON61990
NubieberCALIFORNIA52014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.