BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Avocet In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauShorebirds

American Avocet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+4%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Avocet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

American Avocet In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.24
20260.060.000.24
20270.060.000.24
20280.060.000.23
20290.060.000.23

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording American Avocet in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JensenUTAH52023
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO41991
AlamosaCOLORADO32022
San LuisCOLORADO32007
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO31997
DulceNEW-MEXICO32024
ClevelandUTAH31992
Main CanyonUTAH32002
MoffatCOLORADO22013
WaldenCOLORADO22018
GuffeyCOLORADO22021
MoscaCOLORADO22023
CrownpointNEW-MEXICO21996
Wellington 2UTAH22010
BrookhurstWYOMING22022
ComoCOLORADO11999
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO11979
AnethUTAH12003
M Warner ResUTAH12023
WellingtonUTAH12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.