BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Avocet In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesShorebirds

American Avocet in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-52%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

American Avocet In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 145% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+145%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±161.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 145% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.000.40
20270.160.000.40
20280.160.000.40
20290.160.000.39
20300.160.000.39

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording American Avocet in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BeaverheadMONTANA422012
GlenMONTANA322014
Rock RiverWYOMING172022
Horse CreekWYOMING162022
Neponset ResUTAH112018
Colter BayWYOMING91997
AlpineWYOMING92000
AnchorWYOMING92016
Wise RiverMONTANA82012
Green RiverWYOMING81982
Salmon RiverIDAHO71988
PolsonMONTANA71997
DuboisWYOMING72012
Painted RockMONTANA62002
MooseWYOMING62017
LovellWYOMING61999
YellowstoneWYOMING62024
MammothWYOMING52024
Ne EntranceWYOMING42016
PathfinderWYOMING42025
Flamin GorgeWYOMING42025
RandolphUTAH32021
FontenelleWYOMING32023
LamontWYOMING31999
Rock SpringsWYOMING32012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.