BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Avocet In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesShorebirds

American Avocet in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Avocet has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Avocet In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.33–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Avocet in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.33–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.780.301.3
20270.780.311.3
20280.790.321.3
20290.800.321.3
20300.800.331.3

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Avocet in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WylieMINNESOTA142019
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA111984
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA102025
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA92023
GlasgowMONTANA81982
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA72025
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA72025
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA71984
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA52019
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA52018
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA52018
SunburstMONTANA42005
WhitlashMONTANA42018
GildfordMONTANA42023
WestbyMONTANA42025
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA42024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA41983
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA42010
Hay LakeMONTANA32019
ChinookMONTANA32017
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA32010
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA31995
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA32022
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA31985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.