BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker Population Analysis

PicidaeForest birdsDryobates villosus

Hairy Woodpecker has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3,121RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Hairy Woodpecker

The Hairy Woodpecker (Dryobates villosus) is a North American member of the Woodpeckers (Picidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–19.5 in long (15–50 cm) — a chisel-billed climber (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 3,121 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 49 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Picidae · Forest birds

Notable Hairy Woodpecker TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has risen sharply in surveyed states: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.58–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.58–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.640.560.71
20270.640.570.71
20280.650.570.72
20290.650.570.72
20300.650.580.73

Where the Hairy Woodpecker Is Detected

BBS routes recording Hairy Woodpecker, sized by most recent count.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend by State

Hairy Woodpecker population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+21%196890
Alaska-69%197772
Arizona+62%197028
Arkansas+17%196955
California+112%1970171
Colorado+241%197192
Connecticut-27%196820
Delaware+350%196816
Florida-23%196854
Georgia-23%196883
Idaho-24%197346
Illinois+129%196890
Indiana+48%196860
Iowa+50%196938
Kansas+73%196952
Kentucky-5%196860
Louisiana+6%196983
Maine+61%196877
Maryland+250%196874
Massachusetts+52%196832
Michigan+191%1968105
Minnesota+288%196991
Mississippi-17%196858
Missouri+34%196986
Montana+350%197056
Nebraska-57%196943
Nevada+146%199410
New Hampshire+93%196826
New Jersey-3%196837
New Mexico+244%197132
New York+120%1968128
North Carolina+47%1968100
North Dakota+188%197242
Ohio+137%196881
Oklahoma+181%196956
Oregon+18%1970105
Pennsylvania+63%1968135
Rhode Island+117%19705
South Carolina-90%196839
South Dakota+124%196941
Tennessee+135%196853
Texas+23%197149
Utah-32%197048
Vermont+105%196826
Virginia+93%196884
Washington+66%197083
West Virginia+35%196863
Wisconsin+204%196898
Wyoming+22%197448

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Hairy Woodpecker population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4-79%198344
Northern Pacific Rainforest+18%1970148
Great Basin+25%1970113
Northern Rockies+50%1970146
Prairie Potholes+360%196988
Boreal Hardwood Transition+214%1968126
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+121%196886
Atlantic Northern Forest+116%1968155
Sierra Nevada+67%197040
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+101%1970166
Badlands and Prairies+8%196961
Shortgrass Prairie+3%198117
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-0%196977
Oaks and Prairies+82%196937
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+41%1968242
Prairie Hardwood Transition+155%1968156
Central Hardwoods+63%1968157
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+71%196999
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-40%196855
Southeastern Coastal Plain-27%1968264
Appalachian Mountains+105%1968392
Piedmont+57%1968153
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+56%1968152
Peninsular Florida-46%197030
Coastal California-2%197169
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+78%19794
Sierra Madre Occidental+3%197021
Chihuahuan Desert-47%19805
Gulf Coastal Prairie-76%197115

Hairy Woodpecker Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 58% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.