BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Montana has surged: up 467% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+467%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Montana: up 466% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Montana is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.25–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Montana is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.25–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.410.220.59
20260.410.230.60
20270.420.230.61
20280.430.240.61
20290.430.250.62

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greenough520031995
Red Rock520231973
Painted Rock520191993
Noxon520232004
Hebgen Lake420232017
Clinton320241975
Chestnut320241971
Skalkho-Rye320222002
Maynard Coulee320242017
Libby Dam220241982
Logan Pass220241980
Elevation Mt220241995
Arlee220241969
Leroy219931993
Whitefish Lake220242017
Clancy220222017
Fish Creek220242011
Chuffey Spring220242017
Lima219961996
Kalispell120221971
St Mary120061986
Victor120171993
Threemile Wa120211993
Cleveland119931993
Cramer Creek120111995

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.