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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Virginia has surged: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+106%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Virginia: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.40–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.40–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.40–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.670.380.96
20260.680.380.97
20270.680.390.98
20280.690.390.98
20290.690.400.99

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Meadows720241994
Front Royal620241994
Tryme420221981
Hebron419951986
Stanley320191968
Covington320241967
Cornland320091978
Bald Knob320231997
Ft Pickett N319951993
Brandon320241994
Dismal Swamp320161993
Partlow220001978
Fincastle220241975
Amherst220231968
Church Road220161966
Saltville220231981
Ivanhoe219661966
Irisburg220221976
Brodnax220241974
Newsoms220171973
Moran220241998
Carters Brdg 2220242017
Mountain Lk.220171992
Ft Pickett S219951994
Walkers220211992

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.