BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Nevada has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+146%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Nevada: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Nevada is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.04–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Nevada is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.04–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.030.23
20270.130.040.23
20280.140.040.23
20290.140.040.24
20300.140.040.24

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jarbidge520141997
Meadow Vally420252016
Comins Lake320152014
Chimney Res.220182018
Hawthorne219991999
Humboldt Nf119941994
Austin120172009
Mizpah119991996
Illipah120181991
Willis120251994

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.