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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-66%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Alaska is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Alaska is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.000.63
20260.200.000.63
20270.200.000.62
20280.190.000.61
20290.180.000.61

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willow520191997
Unalakleet River420221999
L Salcha420141994
Harlequin L.420241994
Juneau Alt319851984
Craig320221983
Cordova319831983
Dillingham320132009
Livengood220212011
Tower Bluffs220172016
Kuskulana220211991
Mccarthy Rd2220241992
Kuiu Island220102010
Chena Hot Spring 2220231999
Goose Bay219751975
Skilak Lake219831982
Homer219821982
Ketchikan220211998
Haines220241972
Hoonah220241993
Chichagof Is220241994
Kenny Lake220211986
Mitkof Isle220241989
Zimovia Strt220241991
Chicken220192019

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.