BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in South Dakota has surged: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+128%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in South Dakota: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in South Dakota is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.23–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±153.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in South Dakota is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.23–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.201.1
20260.640.211.1
20270.640.211.1
20280.650.221.1
20290.660.231.1

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rochford1920181996
Elk Mountain920041992
Roubaix Lk619911967
Custer620241968
Black Fox620171992
Englewood620211992
Norbeck520021992
Promise420121972
Howard220241976
Ft Thompson220112011
Britton220171983
Badlands220041982
Hill City220131993
Silver City220021992
Lennox120111984
Tripp119981998
Geddes120041990
Chamberlain119711971
Winner120181989
Rosebud120072006
Rockyford119891967
Volga120191969
Roswell119871987
Broadland120022000
Crow Creek120162016

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.