BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Missouri has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hairy Woodpecker in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.42 (95% range 0.13–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.42 (95% range 0.13–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.420.130.71
20270.420.130.71
20280.420.130.71
20290.420.130.71
20300.420.130.71

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rueter520182018
Mincy420242016
Syracuse320241969
Kahoka319831980
Kingsville320251996
Luray320222015
House Springs320252023
Milford320232016
Doe Run320232015
Union319991993
Deventer220041981
Rensselaer220241986
Madison220241973
Sticklervill220251970
Trenton220221968
Tarkio219781968
Crane220231998
Marshfield220221994
Graniteville220251982
Watson220231993
Woodlandville220232015
Gerald220252019
Richland220152015
Pulaski120221976
Peace Valley120121975

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.