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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Kansas has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+73%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has risen sharply in Kansas: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Kansas is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.10–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Kansas is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.10–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.090.52
20270.310.090.52
20280.310.090.52
20290.310.090.53
20300.310.100.53

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Olathe320181967
Hopewell320032003
Wellington220241982
St John220031976
Kanopolis220251968
Phillipsburg220001969
Logan219881977
Beloit 2220182009
Morehead220252004
Berwet220242000
Goessel220152015
Severance220252005
Olsburg220252002
Melrose119911975
Galesburg120251976
Humboldt120221968
Lapland119921992
Jewell 2120172017
Dalton120251968
Coats120191972
Coldwater120051972
Ashland120071976
Dover120221971
Barclay120131968
Wreford120211970

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.