BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in New Jersey has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hairy Woodpecker in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in New Jersey is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.02–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in New Jersey is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.02–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.020.85
20260.440.020.85
20270.440.020.85
20280.440.020.86
20290.440.020.86

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kemah Lake520241966
Dover420231991
Estell Manor420222022
Greenwich320231974
Woodbury Hgt220181967
Albion220071966
Pottersville220241999
Keyport220131991
Friendship220231979
Mt Misery219801976
Cape May Ch220112010
Croton 2220242008
Ramseysburg220221995
Six Points120161978
Deepwater119711971
Toms River120091970
Ancora119771967
Masonville119681968
Bennett Mill119991969
Sandbrook120241979
Holmansville119921969
Spraguetown 2120042004
New Bedford120151970
Croton120071973
Robbinsville119671967

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.