BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Oklahoma has surged: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+181%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Oklahoma: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.04–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.04–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.040.60
20270.320.040.60
20280.320.040.60
20290.320.040.61
20300.320.040.61

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns East720252009
Woodward520252002
Mcalester319871967
Bartlesville320241972
Wainwright319961996
Phillips219941971
Loco219781971
Phroso220251993
Baron220231973
Choctaw220051969
Eagle City220021967
Barnsdall219741972
Lookout220232021
Ouachita Nf220251994
Hollis220252025
Heyburn220242001
Arapaho220061993
Wichita Mts West220252006
Duncan220241990
Big Cedar120241968
Blanco120011967
Mill Creek120171979
Ardmore120071973
Randlett120031972
Cookietown119811981

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.