BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in New Mexico has surged: up 243% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+243%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in New Mexico: up 243% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.46–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.46–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.670.420.92
20260.680.430.93
20270.690.440.94
20280.700.450.95
20290.710.460.96

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reserve720231993
Claunch 2620242001
Bluewater Lake420211999
Cebolla320231973
Mt. Taylor 2320242014
Pecos220151973
Carrizozo220221980
Angel Fire 2220242005
Mt. Taylor220121994
Gallinas220241992
Vicks Peak220241994
Nageesi119951995
Ojo Sarco120231968
La Cienega120111988
Fence Lake120241975
Claunch120001978
Horse Spgs120211975
Horse Mtn120211968
Dulce120212016
Cloudcroft120241978
Counselor120231996
Angel Fire120021995
Mcgaffey120221996
Vallecitos120241994
Mountainair120001993

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.