BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Massachusetts has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has risen sharply in Massachusetts: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.72–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.72–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.72–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.691.8
20261.30.691.8
20271.30.701.8
20281.30.711.8
20291.30.721.9

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard920221971
S Barre520241968
Prattville320151971
Cummington320141969
Ware River320211993
Wellfleet 2320242016
Cummington 2320242015
E Dennis220131969
Marion220241969
Brockton220181974
Newburyport220221967
N Orange220241970
Monterey220242019
Hancock220141997
Chilmark119831973
Wellfleet119981971
Littleton120221968
N Oxford120211968
Mansfield120231969
Princeton119761969
E Pepperell119941966
Belchertown120231967
Warren120091968
Chesterfield120241967
Cheshire119921969

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.