BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Delaware

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Delaware has surged: up 314% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+314%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Delaware: up 314% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Delaware is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.23–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Delaware is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.23–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.201.2
20260.700.201.2
20270.710.211.2
20280.720.221.2
20290.730.231.2

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pepperbox320161998
Pepperbox 2320242018
Harrington220241967
Mt Pleasant120141975
Wilmington120081967
Frederica120121980
Dover119751972
Frankford120061966
Holleyville120041966
Lowes Xrds119801972
Blackbird120231994
Milton120141968
Millsboro120232017
Holleyville 2120162006
Georgetown120181992
Milton 2120172017

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.