BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-67%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Nebraska is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Nebraska is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.23
20260.090.000.23
20270.090.000.23
20280.090.000.22
20290.080.000.22

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Ridge420212003
Julian319911972
Oglala Nat. Grass.320192017
Wheeler Co320141983
Almeria219831976
Eagle Creek219981970
Midway220191967
Johnstown219691969
Johnson120031976
Liberty119761967
Kenesaw120222022
Kearney120141968
Holbrook119901990
Stratton119751975
Gretna120151987
Irvington119961972
Surprise120061968
Richland120241982
Petersburg120221978
Paxton120161982
Thurston120051972
Sparta120211980
Winside119951987
Swan Lake120032003
Agate119811981

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.