BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Vermont has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+105%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Vermont: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Vermont is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.38–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Vermont is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.38–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.382.4
20271.40.382.4
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20301.40.382.4

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marlboro620251966
Middlesex620251969
Hardwick520241966
Northfld Fls420251986
Gaysville320251966
S Wallingfrd320171967
St Johnsbury320251970
Fletcher320251968
Colchester320221991
Newbury 2320232008
Landgrove220241968
Post Mills220251966
East Calais220251966
Stowe220241988
Bristol220251995
North Pownal120181966
Stratton120251967
S Reading120241968
Shaftsbury120251968
W Rutland120251967
East Haven120251966
Newbury120021986
Greensboro120251969
Waterville119801970
Hinesburg119931966

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.