BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Vermont has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Vermont: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Vermont is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.34–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Vermont is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.34–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardwick520241966
Stratton420241967
Fletcher420241968
S Wallingfrd320171967
Middlesex320241969
East Calais320231966
Greensboro320241969
Colchester320221991
Newbury 2320232008
Marlboro220241966
Landgrove220241968
Gaysville220191966
W Rutland220241967
St Johnsbury220241970
Northfld Fls220211986
Stowe220241988
Bristol220171995
North Pownal120181966
S Reading120241968
Post Mills120231966
Shaftsbury120231968
East Haven120241966
Newbury120021986
Waterville119801970
Hinesburg119931966

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.