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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Minnesota has surged: up 288% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+288%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Minnesota: up 288% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.63–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.63–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.960.591.3
20270.970.601.3
20280.980.611.4
20290.990.621.4
20301.00.631.4

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Edwards420241973
Sherry Lake420221969
Debs420251970
Waskish420251978
Cass Lake420161983
Sherburne Nr420241992
Minnetonka320251971
Bemidji319801979
Sawbill Camp320251993
Chatfield 2320252010
Whitewater319971997
Chandler219811980
Ash Creek220241977
Millville220161970
Maynard220151981
Knapp220251969
St Stephen220251968
Cromwell220251978
Mille Lacs220241971
Glyndon220241996
Lockport220251974
Sawbill Lndg220251973
Island Lake220131971
Beltrami220241967
Crane Lake220241969

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.