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Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Wisconsin has surged: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+203%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Wisconsin: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.981.8
20261.40.991.8
20271.41.01.8
20281.41.01.8
20291.41.01.8

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gresham820241998
Cumberland720231967
Eagle River720241966
Holway619881967
Wausaukee620241984
Meridean620241998
Amnicon Falls520241998
Prairie Du Chien520241998
Chaffey420241966
Shanagolden420241975
Weyerhauser420231972
Rib Lake420191966
Washington I420241967
Newburg Crns420221968
Cavour420241998
Bayfield320241973
Loraine320181966
Popple River320241970
Manitowoc320241979
N Andover320241967
Land O' Lakes 2320242017
Mellen320241998
Weirgor Springs320241999
River Falls320241998
Iron River220241969

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.