BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Michigan has surged: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+209%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Michigan: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.78–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.78–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.731.6
20261.20.741.6
20271.20.751.6
20281.20.771.7
20291.20.781.7

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maple Grove720241970
Holt520241969
Cunard420211973
Nashville420221968
Galesburg420221966
Frederic420031983
Fowlerville420171979
Pleasant Valley 2420172006
Betchler Lks420241992
Seney Nwr420231992
Herman320221984
Creighton320211978
Irons319861971
Traverse Cty319851985
Howardsville320241972
Pickford320191980
S Lyons319731970
Frederic 2320152004
Ensign320102006
Big Island Lake320092008
Bootjack220231968
Gibbs City220241982
Bear Lake220241973
Muskallonge220241967
Pleasant Val219961967

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.