BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in North Carolina has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hairy Woodpecker in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.27–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.27–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.610.250.97
20270.620.260.98
20280.620.260.98
20290.620.260.98
20300.630.270.99

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South. Pines519961996
Craven Gap419721969
Speed320251967
Sawmill320182002
Wilgrove320221995
Todd320221995
Hertford320172007
Jackson320161995
N. Mills Riv319951994
Merrimon220151968
Wards Corner220181966
Kinston220221979
Oakboro220211980
California220131973
Youngsville220241967
Supply220241992
Rowland220011990
California 2220252014
Hamlet220141995
Pinetops220212000
Sheffield220251991
Flay220251994
Bullock220251997
Mount Airy220232014
Rheasville220172005

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.