BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in North Dakota has surged: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+188%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in North Dakota: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in North Dakota is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.13–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in North Dakota is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.13–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.120.56
20270.340.120.56
20280.340.120.57
20290.350.130.57
20300.350.130.57

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooperstown320251971
Emerado220251975
Wimbledon220102010
Buchanan220031974
Denbigh220221996
Bentley219971992
Douglas Crk220231998
Forman120231970
Walcott120231975
Sydney119721972
Edgeley120251995
Lake George120102010
Carson120102010
Kempton120131983
Bowesmont119921976
Nash120171980
Lakota120032003
Webster120091996
Rolla119951995
Niles119951994
Regan120212017
Dickinson120151999
Carpio119971997
Loraine120182016
Tobacco120081992

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.