BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in New York has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+127%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in New York: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.91–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.91–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.91–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.861.6
20261.30.871.7
20271.30.881.7
20281.30.891.7
20291.30.911.7

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Petersburg420121968
Catskills420151967
Laurens420241971
Speculator420241966
Inlet420171979
North Easton420241968
Sabattis419831966
Meridale320241971
Duanesburg320241966
Dryden320231966
Watertown320121992
Number Four320131970
N Wilmurt319981967
Dexter Lake319751968
Gabriels320241975
Parishville320241971
Ellenburg320051989
Balmat320071982
Orange Lake319911988
Bedford219951967
Rifton219831967
W Shokan220191968
Mt Hope220101970
Ghent220241967
Durham219731966

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.