BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in New York has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+120%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hairy Woodpecker Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in New York: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in New York is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.91–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.91–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in New York is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.91–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.871.6
20271.30.881.7
20281.30.891.7
20291.30.901.7
20301.30.911.7

Hairy Woodpecker Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Parishville620251971
Degrasse520251983
Petersburg420121968
Catskills420151967
Hamburg420251988
Inlet420171979
Sabattis419831966
Meridale320251971
Duanesburg320241966
Dryden320251966
Watertown320121992
Kasoag320251966
Number Four320131970
N Wilmurt319981967
North Easton320251968
Dexter Lake319751968
Ellenburg320051989
Balmat320071982
Orange Lake319911988
Bedford219951967
Rifton219831967
W Shokan220191968
Mt Hope220101970
Durham219731966
Cooperstown219771970

Hairy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.