BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 304% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+304%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 304% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hairy Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.09–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.09–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.080.41
20260.250.080.41
20270.250.090.41
20280.250.090.41
20290.250.090.41

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashingtonIOWA32013
ZearingIOWA21994
ChandlerMINNESOTA21981
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22021
MaynardMINNESOTA22015
AppletonMINNESOTA22019
GlyndonMINNESOTA22024
BeltramiMINNESOTA22024
BadgerMINNESOTA22013
FranklinMINNESOTA22019
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA22016
LockhartMINNESOTA22024
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA21998
MidwayNEBRASKA22019
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA22010
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA22003
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA22022
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA22023
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA22024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
PantherIOWA12024
KanawhaIOWA12022
ClareIOWA12007
GarnerIOWA11978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.