BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 360% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+360%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Hairy Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.25 (95% range 0.09–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.25 (95% range 0.09–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.080.41
20270.250.080.41
20280.250.090.41
20290.250.090.41
20300.250.090.41

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashingtonIOWA32013
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA32025
PantherIOWA22025
ZearingIOWA21994
ChandlerMINNESOTA21981
MaynardMINNESOTA22015
GlyndonMINNESOTA22024
BeltramiMINNESOTA22024
BadgerMINNESOTA22013
WorthingtonMINNESOTA22025
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA22016
LockhartMINNESOTA22024
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA21998
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22025
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA22010
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA22003
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA22022
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA22023
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
KanawhaIOWA12022
ClareIOWA12007
GarnerIOWA11978
TitonkaIOWA12024
MccallsburgIOWA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.