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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hairy Woodpecker In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.15–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.15–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.400.140.66
20270.400.140.66
20280.410.140.67
20290.410.150.67
20300.410.150.67

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Burr FerryLOUISIANA52010
GraysonLOUISIANA52019
De QuincyLOUISIANA32011
IvanLOUISIANA32013
Ivan 2LOUISIANA32016
McalesterOKLAHOMA31987
ChandlerTEXAS31985
RamseyARKANSAS21996
HopeARKANSAS22003
MassardARKANSAS22007
PrincetonARKANSAS22014
Dry ForkARKANSAS22023
Four LakesARKANSAS21997
De RidderLOUISIANA21990
LongstreetLOUISIANA22024
PhillipsOKLAHOMA21994
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA22025
LivingstonTEXAS22022
CaledoniaTEXAS22025
Alexander StTEXAS22024
Powell ParkTEXAS22021
Old MiloARKANSAS12006
Locust BayouARKANSAS12017
StampsARKANSAS12019
AshdownARKANSAS11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.