BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Northern Rockies has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hairy Woodpecker in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.43–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.43–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.750.411.1
20260.750.421.1
20270.750.421.1
20280.760.431.1
20290.760.431.1

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black Mtn.OREGON152004
SilviesOREGON142024
Silver CreekOREGON112024
Omak CreekWASHINGTON72024
CloverlandWASHINGTON72024
OchocoOREGON61982
WickiupOREGON62024
Mount VernonOREGON62024
BarnhouseOREGON62024
SaveryWYOMING61995
CoolinIDAHO52024
Red RockMONTANA52023
Painted RockMONTANA52019
NoxonMONTANA52023
GreenoughMONTANA52003
Hebgen LakeMONTANA42023
GraniteOREGON42024
Summit PrOREGON42024
Howard Mdws.OREGON42019
OchocoOREGON42024
DesolationOREGON42007
ChallisIDAHO32024
ClintonMONTANA32024
ChestnutMONTANA32024
Skalkho-RyeMONTANA32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.