BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hairy Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Hairy Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.000.48
20260.210.000.48
20270.200.000.47
20280.200.000.47
20290.190.000.47

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Morgan CityLOUISIANA32013
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA32022
DundeeMISSISSIPPI32021
CommerceMISSISSIPPI31982
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS22024
FreetownLOUISIANA21995
GibsonLOUISIANA22019
KraemerLOUISIANA22024
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI22012
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI21999
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI22024
DeventerMISSOURI22004
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE22022
EudoraARKANSAS12009
HughesARKANSAS12022
West TylerARKANSAS11984
South BendARKANSAS12017
HarrisburgARKANSAS11976
WhittonARKANSAS11991
AugustaARKANSAS11999
SaffellARKANSAS12015
MaynardARKANSAS12004
EnglandARKANSAS12013
GillettARKANSAS12010
UlmARKANSAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.